About this board

Where the numbers come from. We used Poliwave's polling average for each race. An average mixes many polls together. Ohio alone had 54 polls. One poll can be off, but an average smooths out the bumps.

What the margin means. The margin is the gap between the two candidates in that average. "R -2.7" means the Republican is 2.7 points behind. We store every margin from the Republican side. The D view just flips the sign. The numbers never change, only the point of view.

How we grouped the races. Defend means seats Republicans hold where they are behind in the polls. Pick up means seats Democrats hold. Also defend means seats Republicans hold where they are ahead. Inside each group we sorted by margin, closest race first.

What the labels mean. Labels like Uphill and Long shot come from the size of the margin. Within about 2 points is a coin flip. 2 to 4 points is a real lead, but a fragile one. More than 5 points is outside the normal polling error. Polls usually miss by 3 to 5 points, and they tend to miss in the same direction in every state at once. That is why a bunch of 3-point leads can all flip together.

The math. Republicans have 53 seats. They keep control at 50 because the Vice President breaks ties. So they can lose 3 seats. Democrats need 51, so they need to flip 4.

Closing times. These are the last poll closing time in each state, in Eastern time. That is when counting starts, not when we know the winner. Close races take hours. Alaska can take days.

Status. Calls come from the Associated Press and are pushed to this board by hand. Tap Refresh to pull the latest.

Where the numbers come from. We used Poliwave's polling average for each race. An average mixes many polls together. Ohio alone had 54 polls. One poll can be off, but an average smooths out the bumps.

What the margin means. The margin is the gap between the two candidates in that average. "R -2.7" means the Republican is 2.7 points behind. We store every margin from the Republican side. The D view just flips the sign. The numbers never change, only the point of view.

How we grouped the races. Defend means seats Republicans hold where they are behind in the polls. Pick up means seats Democrats hold. Also defend means seats Republicans hold where they are ahead. Inside each group we sorted by margin, closest race first.

What the labels mean. Labels like Uphill and Long shot come from the size of the margin. Within about 2 points is a coin flip. 2 to 4 points is a real lead, but a fragile one. More than 5 points is outside the normal polling error. Polls usually miss by 3 to 5 points, and they tend to miss in the same direction in every state at once. That is why a bunch of 3-point leads can all flip together.

The math. There are 435 House seats. Whoever wins 218 has the majority. Republicans went in with a small majority, so Democrats need a net gain of only a few seats.

Closing times. These are the last poll closing time in each state, in Eastern time. That is when counting starts, not when we know the winner. Close races take hours. Alaska can take days.

Status. Calls come from the Associated Press and are pushed to this board by hand. Tap Refresh to pull the latest.

Where the numbers come from. Ratings come from the Cook Political Report. Where we have polls, we used Poliwave's polling average for each race. An average mixes many polls together, so one bad poll matters less.

What the margin means. The margin is the gap between the two candidates in that average. "R -2.7" means the Republican is 2.7 points behind. We store every margin from the Republican side. The D view just flips the sign. The numbers never change, only the point of view.

How we grouped the races. There are 36 governor races tonight. The main board shows the competitive ones, sorted by rating with Toss-up first. Every race is on the All 36 governor races page.

What the labels mean. Labels like Uphill and Long shot come from the size of the margin. Within about 2 points is a coin flip. 2 to 4 points is a real lead, but a fragile one. More than 5 points is outside the normal polling error. Polls usually miss by 3 to 5 points, and they tend to miss in the same direction in every state at once. That is why a bunch of 3-point leads can all flip together.

The math. There are 50 governors. 14 are not up this year: 8 Republicans and 6 Democrats. Those are the holdovers. Add tonight's winners to the holdovers to get each party's total.

Closing times. These are the last poll closing time in each state, in Eastern time. That is when counting starts, not when we know the winner. Close races take hours. Alaska can take days.

Status. Calls come from the Associated Press and are pushed to this board by hand. Tap Refresh to pull the latest.