Florida
R held
Called for RGOP +4closes 8:00 PM ET
Lean Ropen seat
Who's running
Byron DonaldsR
Byron Donalds grew up in Brooklyn, raised by a single mom. He moved to Florida for college and worked in banking and finance. He served in the Florida House from 2016 to 2020 and has been in the U.S. House since 2021. Trump endorsed him days before he announced in February 2025. He won the August 18 primary with about 48 percent and has raised more than $140 million.
What they say they'll do
- Opposes a new state-backed catastrophe insurance fund and would change the existing hurricane fund instead.
- Supports Amendment 3, a bigger homestead property tax exemption.
- Local control over data centers.
- Supports school choice and charter schools.
David JollyD
David Jolly was a Republican congressman from 2014 to 2017. He left the Republican Party in 2018 and became a Democrat in April 2025. He launched his campaign in June 2025 and won the August 18 Democratic primary with 61 percent. His running mate is former congresswoman Gwen Graham. He says he is a pragmatist who can work with a Republican Legislature.
What they say they'll do
- A state-backed catastrophe fund to take a bigger role in hurricane and wind insurance.
- A one-year pause on new data centers.
- A 30 percent teacher pay raise as part of a 10-year education plan.
- Opposes Amendment 3 and supports putting abortion rights into law.
The tea ☕
- There were no debates. Jolly turned down all of them, saying Donalds was acting in bad faith. Donalds said Jolly "has no substance."
- Donalds calls Jolly's insurance plan a $1,000 "hurricane tax." A WUFT fact check found the plan would not create such a tax, but also found it likely would not lower premiums the way Jolly promises.
- The money gap is huge: Donalds has raised more than $140 million to roughly $20 million for Jolly.
- During the primary, the state GOP canceled its debate after only Donalds met its rules. Gov. DeSantis said the party was trying to "engineer the outcome." Donalds skipped every primary debate, and rival James Fishback called him a "coward." DeSantis later endorsed Donalds anyway.
- Cook moved the race from Likely R to Lean R on October 1, but the polls have moved less toward Jolly than the ratings have.