Texas

R held
Called for D (flip)GOP +2.5closes 9:00 PM ET
Called · 68% in · Hinojosa +15 (NBC, WaPo call)
Lean R

Who's running

Greg AbbottR41.8% · 68% inIncumbent

Greg Abbott has been governor since 2015. He is running for a fourth term, which would make him the longest-serving governor in Texas history. He won his past three races by 20, 13, and 11 points. Trump endorsed him in November 2025, and he won the March 3 primary with 82 percent. He started the year with a $105.7 million war chest.

What they say they'll do
  • The "Abbott Affordability Agenda."
  • Attacks Hinojosa's property tax votes with a $12 million ad buy.
  • Backed by police groups, the Border Patrol union, and the NRA.
  • Oil and gas growth and public safety.
Gina HinojosaD56.9% · 68% in

Gina Hinojosa was born in McAllen and raised in Brownsville. She was a civil rights lawyer for union members. She served on the Austin school board from 2012 to 2016 and has been in the Texas House since 2017. In 2021 and 2025 she joined Democrats who left the state to block Republican bills. She announced in October 2025 and won the March 3 primary with about 58 percent.

What they say they'll do
  • Affordability and "kitchen-table issues."
  • End the STAAR tests and the 2025 school voucher program.
  • A pause on data center construction and strict guardrails.
  • Suspend the state gas tax and send every household a $1,500 rebate check.

The tea ☕

  • Abbott is refusing to debate for the first time in four runs for governor. On October 15, Hinojosa staged a "debate" outside the Governor's Mansion with an empty podium next to her. Abbott was in East Texas with police and called it "grand standing."
  • At that event, an independent write-in candidate tried to take the empty podium and was escorted off stage while the crowd chanted Hinojosa's name.
  • Abbott's campaign ran a rolling billboard truck that followed Hinojosa's events, showing claims about her voting record. She says she has "never, not once" voted to raise property taxes and that the attacks are paid for by billionaire donors.
  • Abbott outspent Hinojosa about 6 to 1 from July to late September ($74.1 million to $12.1 million), yet his narrow lead barely moved. The final NYT/Siena and AtlasIntel polls both had Hinojosa up one point.
  • Cook moved the race from Likely R to Lean R on October 1. Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since 1990.

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